Anticipating a Global Turnaround: Potential Decline in Carbon Emissions in 2024

Climate experts are increasingly optimistic about a pivotal moment in the fight against climate change—2024 might witness the beginning of a decline in emissions from the energy sector. This aligns with earlier predictions by the International Energy Agency (IEA), envisioning a crucial milestone in emissions reduction by the mid-2020s.

Around three-quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions originate from the energy sector, making a decline imperative for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This ambitious goal, endorsed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is deemed essential to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avert the most severe consequences of the climate crisis.

The Question of “How Long”

While the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023 proposes a peak in energy-related emissions “by 2025,” an analysis by the Carbon Brief suggests an earlier peak in 2023. This accelerated timeline is attributed in part to the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, emphasizes that the question is not “if” but “how soon” emissions will peak, underscoring the urgency of the matter.

Contrary to concerns, low-carbon technologies are set to play a pivotal role. A Carbon Brief analysis predicts that coal, oil, and gas use will peak by 2030, driven by the “unstoppable” growth of these technologies.

Renewable Energy in China

China, as the world’s largest carbon emitter, is making significant strides in promoting low-carbon technologies, contributing to the decline of the fossil fuel economy. Despite approving new coal-fired power stations to meet energy demands, a recent poll by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China’s emissions may peak by 2030.

China’s commitment to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, as part of a global plan with 117 other signatories, indicates a significant shift. Lauri Myllyvirta of CREA suggests that China’s emissions might enter a “structural decline” from 2024 as renewables fulfill new energy demand.

The Hottest Year

Reflecting on the hottest year recorded in July 2023, with temperatures at a 120,000-year high, urgent global action is urged by experts. The World Meteorological Organization warns that extreme weather is causing destruction and despair, emphasizing the need for immediate and comprehensive efforts to combat climate change.